American stocks or European bonds?

Although the number of financial market days in November was influenced by several factors, the impact of developments in the euro-dollar market was honored throughout the month. While stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic have developed in much the same way, bond markets have certainly not been able to do so.

At the end of November, markets were affected by all factors. Among the longest years were the results of the US election, which did not confirm fears of their prolongation, and the quick confirmation by G. Bush brought peace to the markets. After the elections, there was a particular sector in which the presidents fought, such as military spending, pharmaceuticals and energy. In addition, the market was helped by macro data, especially the results from the labor market and the declining oil.

The action was quite successful

The US stock market thus recorded the longest growth rate in the last few years and the S&P 500 index even rose for nine days in a row. The market then began to show a decline in the dollar, which began to attack the level of $ 1.3 per euro. The increase in annual rates by 25 percentage points to 2% did not affect the markets or the dollar exchange rate, because it was equitable.

In the second half of the month, the market was positively affected mainly by the merger of Kmart and Sears, and the technology sector was initially helped by the good management of Hewlett-Packard. However, the end of the month for stocks in the USA did not come with a time when the declining dollar may have fallen on it, which thus reduces the attractiveness of American stocks for foreign investors.

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At the end of the year, European stocks rose, influenced mainly by the US market and falling oil prices. The technology sector, telecommunications and airlines have prospered. There was a turnaround in the middle of the month, mainly due to the first time in the automotive sector, when PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault first announced a car sales for the first three months.

The market was driven by technology, but the end of the month was marked by a decline in the market, both due to rising oil prices and in response to the ever-rising exchange rate of the euro against the dollar, which could slow the European economy. Within Europe, actions in the countries of Central Europe, including the Czech Republic, were very successful during the month.

ABROAD SHARES FUNDS
Nzev fondSprvceMnaZmna VJ / PL for 1 msc (v%)Zmna VJ / PL for 12 msc(v%)
Best performance for msc
T KOREA A ACCFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVEST FUNDSUSD18,1829,17
F TECHNOLOGY A ACCFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVEST FUNDSUSD11,9012,93
F EURSMIDCAPGR BX ACC EURFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVEST FUNDSEUR11,7220,75
Worst performance for msc
AAF-RUSSIA EQUITY FUNDABN AMRO IFEUR-11,38n/a
AAF-BIOTECH FUNDABN AMRO IFEUR-3,60-10,93
KBC EQUITY FUND PHARMAKBC AMEUR-3,55-5,33
Best and worst performance in a year
ESPA STOCK VIENNA – PLN REINV.ERSTE-SPARINVESTEUR10,9160,47
GLOBAL TECHNOLOGYPIONEER ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.EUR2,40-11,11
Average performance of foreign equity funds3,5011,72

Due to the generally positive results of the stock market, the performance of the equity-focused fund has also developed and, compared to the previous month, it is known on them. In our performance, the Franklin Templeton fund was the most successful, and in terms of performance, the ESPA Stock Vienna fund, Erste Sparinvest, clearly leads, but this is a long-term trend. Despite relatively good performance, Pioneer AM’s Global Technology Fund has failed to improve its performance rating.

The dollar split the bonds

In the bond markets, November was a development compared to the dark stock market. The US bond market behaved as expected, not the stock. What helped the action damaged the price of the bond. The elected G. Bush president has raised concerns about the persistently high deficits that will be financial assistance to the bond, leading to an increase in its supply. At first, the labor market, falling oil prices, all put pressure on the bond price.

Although the increase in the years of peace in the USA was tremendous and did not affect prices in the dark, the decline in prices eventually caused a gradual increase in the years of peace in December.

Unlike the US, bond prices in Europe continued to rise, which began in June. This was significantly helped by the so-called strengthening of the euro and the dollar, and thus the expectation of leaving the annual rates by the European Central Bank unchanged. The price of the bond was helped by a slowdown in GDP growth in Germany and, consequently, in Eurozn customs. For a very long time, bonds have been available in Central Europe, especially in Poland, but also in Hungary or Slovakia.

FOREIGN BONDS FUNDS
Nzev fondSprvceMnaZmna VJ / PL for 1 msc (v%)Zmna VJ / PL for 12 msc(v%)
Best performance for msc
HGIF-EURO INVEST GRADE BD acHSBC GLOBAL INVEST FUNDS SICAVEUR8,1024,40
T GLBL BOND A DISFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVEST FUNDSUSD8,00n/a
T GLBL BOND AX ACC USDFRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVEST FUNDSUSD7,89n/a
Worst performance for msc
BOND DOLL.-CORP.ERSTE-SPARINVESTEUR-4,83-6,69
BOND DOLLARERSTE-SPARINVESTEUR-4,80-7,58
U.S. DOLLAR SHORT TERMPIONEER ASSET MANAGEMENT S.A.EUR-3,58-7,76
Best and worst performance in a year
HGIF-EURO INVEST GRADE BD acHSBC GLOBAL INVEST FUNDS SICAVEUR8,1024,40
BOND DOLLARERSTE-SPARINVESTEUR-4,80-12,56
Average performance of foreign bond funds0,845,61

The different development in the bond markets was thus reflected in the performance of the fund, which invests most of its resources first in these instruments. As in the past, in November there is a clear difference between funds focused on the US and European bond markets, in this imaginary battle again the European exchange.

For years, rates have risen only in the United States

In the past few months, the money market has shrunk from the years of the US peace by 25 basis points at the level of 2%, which is growing at the level of Europe. It is expected in the near future that the growth of rates in the USA will continue. On the other hand, the European Central Bank currently sees no reason for the movement of years, there has even been speculation (ECB support) about the change of rates in the first year. The growth component in money market funds is thus more likely to be driven by short-term European bonds, whose prices have risen in line with favorable price developments in European bond markets.

FOREIGN MONEY MARKET FUNDS
Nzev fondSprvceMnaZmna VJ / PL for 1 msc (v%)Zmna VJ / PL for 12 msc(v%)
Best performance for msc
HGIF-EURO RESERVE adHSBC GLOBAL INVEST FUNDS SICAVEUR1,006,40
KBC MULTI CASH CAD MEDIUMKBC AMCAD0,483,52
CESKY HYPOTECNI VTERSTE-SPARINVESTCZK0,371,69
Worst performance for msc
UNI-GLOBAL “MAX 3 YEARS” (USD)UNIGESTIONUSD-0,440,43
UNI-GLOBAL “MAX 3 YEARS” (CHF)UNIGESTIONCHF-0,100,62
RAIFFEISEN DOLAROVRAIFFEISEN KAGUSD-0,090,89
Best and worst performance in a year
HGIF-EURO RESERVE adHSBC GLOBAL INVEST FUNDS SICAVEUR1,006,40
HVB LUX PORTF. US-DOLLAR-CASHACTIVEST LUXEMBOURG. (HVB GROUP)USD0,05-0,13
Average performance of foreign money market funds0,031,26

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