esko slows down in the wake of the american crisis

The US mortgage crisis hit about fifteen percent of the assets of Czech households. So much has been saved by Moravians in mutual funds, which have been delayed hard in recent months due to American problems.

And it will be possible h. Soon I will start playing for a real tightening belt, due to my many problems with the “real” Czech economy. That is, production, services and employment.

“The US crisis is already manifesting itself in the Czech Republic as a slowdown in economic growth. It is not small, even slowing down growth has a negative effect and people cannot afford as much as they expected. But it’s okay, “to Jan Vejnar, an economist and leton presidential candidate.

Slowed economy and health of raw materials
According to him, the American problems are putting pressure on the world of rising commodity prices, which will slowly dissolve so-called cost inflation. This means that not only for households, but especially for companies, input prices are rising. Main energy. And such health must manifest itself somewhere.

“Either employees get less wages or companies move for their own profit. Usually both, ”to Vejnar.

So far, the development of the domestic economy does not indicate this, wages are growing at a record high and the Czech koruna is sheltering against expensive raw materials. However, the situation would change if it turned out that the United States had indeed fallen into recession. This is defined as a minimal plron of a decline in economic performance, which would undoubtedly affect the economies of Western European countries, which is difficult to support.

Although I have only 1.9 percent of our total exports to the US, Germany, for example, is much more dependent on the US economy. And we have economic ties to our western neighbor.

Reorient to the entrance
“If the crisis develops into one of the advanced economies, we have a problem. Ninety percent of production to the EU or to Zpad, ”to Ale Michl, an economist at Raiffeisenbank. According to him, the development of the business relationship between Zpad and Vchod would help the Czech Republic.

“It’s up to Ad Entrance to provide dynamism for world growth,” adds Michl.

Only a well-oriented economy cannot cope in a few months and, for example, with a great deal of self-concern, especially in the capital market. The index of German shares weakened by five percent on Monday and lost a record 41 percent since last year.

Another good factor for exports to Asia is the strong crown, which makes Czech goods significantly more expensive abroad. Domc manufacturers thus lose in the battle with the Asian competition. Cite Maa nm nepome Economist Miroslav Výmk sees the possibility of replacing the declining sales with the three entrance ones as quite unreal.

“Even if we crawl through the last Siberian village and our politicians addressed the quotes of President Mao in the original in the German Politburo, we will not be able to sell for EU markets,” said Nadkkou Směk.

USA me jt do recese, k vejnar
The situation in the USA did not look good over time, even though, for example, the local stock market was moving up on Monday.

“The last slaps are in. It turns out that the employed population is not growing and the US economy has practically stopped. It’s dangerous, I’m stopped going into a classic recession, “adds Vejnar.

Denk The New York Times reported on Monday that it is in big trouble in the world’s financial heart, on Wall Street, which is a barometer of the American economy. Employees get rid of the main banks that have the most problems. The city can not be 14 thousand people from virtually bankrupt mortgage bank Bear Stearns.

According to the latest data decline, the consumption of American households next to their doors in the economy and slows down industrial production. Americans do not buy products at a time or abroad, which are too expensive for them due to the weakening dollar. And this is something that Czech must follow in detail.

“German carmakers have not been in the United States for a long time. When the dismissal of BMW means something, ”recalls The change in the luxury car manufacturer will dream of more than eight thousand employees this year.

Simplified thanks to the fact that when BMW does not sell, it will not sell even the code of Toyota, Peugeot or Citren, which they produce in the Czech Republic. It is enough for Western Europeans to postpone the purchase of a new car for several months due to fears of the future, and domestic carmakers will have their hands full selling their products.

Perhaps “only” slowed down
“The knowledge of the automotive industry poses the greatest risk to the Czech Republic. This is most affected at a time of declining economic activity, ”reminds analyst Marek Hatlapatka from Cyrrus.

According to him, the bags are not so pessimistic. “Unless there is a really deep recession in the USA, keep the European country mild, but still grow,” Hatlapatka predicted.

The situation is similarly important, according to him, it is most likely that the Czech Republic will be affected “only” by a slowdown in economic growth. Last year, the economy grew by 6.5 percent, this year economists estimate it
growth around those percent.

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